"Data Shows 'No Signs' of Moving Away from Fossil Fuel Burning"
New data published at the UN's Cop29 climate conference in Azerbaijan indicates that emissions from coal, oil, and gas, which contribute to global warming, are expected to rise by 0.8% in 2024. Conversely, emissions need to drop by 43% by 2030 for the world to have any chance of reaching its 1.5°C temperature target and limiting the "increasingly dramatic" climate impacts on people globally.
Countries around the world agreed to "phase out" fossil fuels at Cop28, held in Dubai in 2023; this decision was hailed as a milestone, given that none of the previous 27 summits had called for restrictions on the primary cause of global warming. On Monday, Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber stated at the summit in Baku, "History will judge us not by our words but by our actions."
The pace of carbon emission growth has slowed in the past decade as the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles has accelerated. However, following a year in which global warming exacerbated deadly heatwaves, floods, and storms, negotiators meeting in Baku are now under pressure to reach the peak of fossil fuel use and initiate a rapid decline.
Cop29 will focus on mobilizing the trillions of dollars that developing countries require each year to reduce emissions while improving the lives of their citizens and safeguarding them against the increasingly inevitable climate chaos. The summit also aims to raise the ambition of the next country's emissions reduction commitments, scheduled for February.
The new data comes from the Global Carbon Budget project, led by Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, involving more than 100 experts.
The report states, "The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still do not see any signs that fossil fuel consumption has peaked. Time is running out, and world leaders gathered at Cop29 must make rapid and deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions."
Prof. Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia remarked, "The transition away from fossil fuels is still not clearly occurring at a global level, but our report highlights that 22 countries have significantly reduced emissions while their economies are growing."
The calculation of 2024 emissions is based on current data and forecasts for the last months of previous years, accurate as of October. Emissions in 2024 are expected to exceed 37 billion tons, which translates to approximately 4 million tons per minute.
Gas emissions are projected to show the largest annual increase at 2.4%, driven by rising usage in China and other places. Oil consumption is expected to rise by 0.9%, especially driven by international flights, while coal emissions are anticipated to increase marginally by 0.2%.
China, the world's largest polluter, is expected to see its emissions rise slightly. Jan Ivar Korsbakken from the International Climate Research Centre (Cicero) in Norway noted, "China has had another record growth year in renewable energy, but coal continues to grow due to even faster increases in electricity demand from high-tech industries and residential consumption." China's oil emissions likely peaked due to the surge in electric vehicles.
Emissions from the second-largest polluter, the United States, are expected to decline slightly due to a continued drop in coal use to a 120-year low, although this is offset by an increase in natural gas consumption. Coal emissions are declining more rapidly in the European Union, leading to a 3.8% reduction in emissions. However, in India, where the economy is growing robustly, coal use is rising, resulting in a 4.6% increase.