China Anticipates Ongoing Competition with the U.S. Post-Election
As a contentious presidential election concludes in the United States, China is preparing for the continuation of a tense superpower rivalry in trade, technology, and security, regardless of the election outcome. Strategists in Beijing foresee a series of challenges depending on whether the next president is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Experts in Beijing predict that Trump may adopt a more aggressive rhetoric and could impose significant tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, potentially even ending China's most-favored-nation trade status. Such proposed tariffs have raised concerns in China's industrial sector, which exports over $400 billion worth of goods annually to the U.S.
Chinese manufacturers fear that new tariffs will disrupt their supply chains, reduce profits, and negatively impact employment and economic growth. They are also concerned about the broader implications of Trump's proposal to apply a 10% tariff on all goods from other countries for the international economic and trade system.
On the other hand, it is expected that Harris would maintain the hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs on Chinese imports implemented by the Biden administration, and might even expand tariffs in strategically significant sectors, such as electric vehicles.
From an alliance perspective, Chinese analysts believe that the network of partnerships in East Asia, including the QUAD alliance and AUKUS defense technology partnership, is likely to continue even if Trump is elected. Despite Trump's past skepticism toward NATO and multilateral cooperation, the alliances established during the Biden administration are considered to be enduring. As vice president, Harris worked to strengthen ties with Asian leaders to balance China's influence in the region.
Regarding Taiwan, Trump has made controversial statements about defense and economic relations with the U.S. In an interview, he expressed his belief that a military conflict over Taiwan would be unnecessary due to his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while stating he would impose additional tariffs on China if needed.
Analysts from Peking University expect Trump to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Beijing and to seek bilateral agreements on various issues. However, they also note that the likelihood of China accepting such an agreement is very low and that Trump's foreign policy advisors may oppose it.
It is noted that the election results may take some time to be confirmed, with Trump showing a willingness to contest any defeat, similar to his response to the 2020 election results. The world is watching this critical moment, which will have significant implications for U.S.-China relations.