Daily News 15 05 2025

Important News of the Day

Time Important Country Event Forecast Previous Actual
00:40 United States (USD) FOMC Member Daly Speaks
04:30 Australia (AUD) Employment Change (Apr) 20.9K 36.4K 89.0K
04:30 Australia (AUD) Full Employment Change (Apr) 12.2K 59.5K
04:30 Australia (AUD) Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% -1.9% 5.9%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.2% 1.5% 1.3%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) -0.6% 1.7% -0.7%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) -0.8% 2.4% -0.8%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Mar) 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance (Mar) -19.10B -20.96B -19.87B
09:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar) -8.85B -6.83B
09:30 Switzerland (CHF) PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
10:50 Euro Zone (EUR) ECB's Elderson Speaks
11:00 United States (USD) IEA Monthly Report
11:30 United Kingdom (GBP) Labour Productivity (Q4) 0.7% -1.1% 0.7%
11:30 United Kingdom (GBP) Labour Productivity -2.1% -0.5%
12:00 Euro Zone (EUR) EU Economic Forecasts
12:00 Euro Zone (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
12:00 Euro Zone (EUR) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
12:00 Euro Zone (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 1.9% 1.1% 2.6%
13:15 Euro Zone (EUR) ECB's De Guindos Speaks
15:15 Canada (CAD) Housing Starts (Apr) 227.0K 214.2K 278.6K
15:30 United States (USD) Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K 1,872K 1,881K
15:30 United States (USD) Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.4% -0.4%
15:30 United States (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
15:30 United States (USD) Initial Jobless Claims 229K 229K 229K
15:30 United States (USD) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) -8.20 -8.10 -9.20
15:30 United States (USD) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) -11.3 -26.4 -4.0
15:30 United States (USD) Philly Fed Employment (May) 0.2 16.5
15:30 United States (USD) PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.0% -0.5%
15:30 United States (USD) Retail Control (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% 0.5% -0.2%
15:30 United States (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.0% 1.7% 0.1%
15:30 Canada (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
15:30 United Kingdom (GBP) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7% 0.6%
15:40 United States (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
16:15 United States (USD) Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% -0.3% 0.0%
16:15 United States (USD) Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) 1.33% 1.49%
17:00 United States (USD) Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
17:00 United States (USD) Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar) 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
20:00 United States (USD) Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.3% 2.3% 2.5%
21:05 United States (USD) Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
23:30 United States (USD) Fed's Balance Sheet 6,711B

European property market: Where have housing costs soared the most?

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Between 2015 and 2024, house prices in the EU increased by 53%, with the cost tripling in some countries.

Higher building costs and mortgage rates, limited supply and the rise in house purchases as an investment created eye-watering price levels in certain countries across the EU. Hungary saw the biggest jump in prices, with dwellings costing three times as much as they did in 2015. Nowadays, an apartment in the country's capital, Budapest, is priced in the range, on average, from €250,000 to €1.5 million.Hungary is followed by Iceland, where prices are approximately 2.5 times what they were in 2015. In the capital region, in Reykjavík and six municipalities around it, dwellings are the most costly, with average purchase prices of around €558,000. According to the Bank of Iceland, as supply has grown and demand is softening, house prices are increasing at a slower pace, yet the year-on-year house price inflation was still 8% in March.Elsewhere in Europe, there was also a considerable rise in house prices over the last 9 years. Lithuania, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia and Poland all witnessed prices more than double. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the list, there is Finland, where property prices are not substantially higher than what they were almost ten years ago. However, there are big differences between the cost of dwellings in the rural areas and in Helsinki, for instance.According to Global Property Guide’s recent report, the downturn in the Finnish property market, which started in 2021 and saw prices collapse by 14% annually, has likely bottomed out. They expect the ongoing economic recovery to support a gradual increase in house prices, mainly newly built ones, as the second-hand dwellings’ price is expected to increase only marginally by 1-3% this year. Second-hand flats have an average price of €4,612 per square metre, driving the cost of a 75 sqm one to €345,900, but in Helsinki, this could be more like €4-500,000.Eurostat has no data for Greek house prices, but according to the Bank of Greece's Residential Property Index, prices are just above their 2008 level in urban areas.Outside of the EU, in Turkey, prices are 17 times what they were in 2015. In Istanbul, a two–bedroom apartment tends to cost around €120,000 nowadays. (It may seem like a good deal compared to Western European prices, but consumer prices are almost up 38% year-on-year and average gross salaries are slightly above €600 per month.)How much more affordable is renting a house?Renting a house or apartment also became a lot more expensive across Europe, even though they increased at a slower pace than prices. According to Eurostat’s latest available data, rents increased by 26.7% in the EU, between 2010 and Q4 2024.However, there were countries with rental prices increasing far beyond the average. Estonia saw the biggest jump in rental prices, which more than tripled(+212%) compared to their level in 2010), in Lithuania, renting became 175% more expensive and in Iceland, the prices grew by 120%. In Hungary, rental prices are more than double (+114%) what they were in 2010. Greece is at the bottom of this list, where rental prices are 13% cheaper in the same period. Meanwhile, in Turkey, rental prices are nearly 8.8 times what they were a decade ago, according to the latest OECD data.Housing costs - where are they the highest in the EU?Housing costs, including paying for utilities, also rose substantially in many EU member states.Between 2015 and March 2025, people in Estonia saw the biggest increase in their housing costs across the bloc. They paid slightly more than double what they did 10 years before.Estonia was followed by Poland and the Czech Republic, each recording housing costs around 180% of what they were in 2015.In the EU, on average, these prices increased by more than 40% over the same period.Within the bloc, the smallest rise was seen in Spain, just above 20%. However, Albania, which is in line to join the EU, saw an even smaller increase. When housing costs are compared to the EU average, Ireland is topping the list of the most expensive country, according to the latest data (2023) from Eurostat. In France and Germany, this cost was a bit more, in Italy and Spain, a bit less than the average in the EU. People in Malta and Hungary paid only two-thirds of the EU average, and Bulgarians were bottom of this list with slightly less than 40% of that.High rental and house prices are partially to blame for many young Europeans not being able to leave their parental home for years after they start working. According to Eurostat, young Europeans leave their parents’ home on average at the age of 26.3. This varies significantly between EU countries, from 21.4 years in Finland to 31.8 years in Croatia.Where did people invest the most in properties?In 2023, people in Cyprus invested the equivalent of 8.6% of the country's GDP in property, according to Eurostat. In Italy, this rate was 7%, slightly more than in Germany (6.9%) and France (6.4%).The lowest rate was recorded in Poland (2.2% of the GDP) and Greece (2.3%).The average investment in housing in the EU sat at 5.8% of GDP in 2023, roughly about one trillion euros.

Friedrich Merz makes big promises from Ukraine to economy in first government statement to Bundestag

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The new German chancellor has pledged to recover Berlin from years of economic stagnation, deliver on “much needed” military development and fulfil NATO defence spending targets.

Newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Wednesday his commitment to unify Europe and the United States in their strategy regarding Ukraine, strengthen Germany's military to establish the most formidable conventional army in Europe, and reinvigorate the continent's largest economy as a driving force for growth.Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), assumed office a week ago following his victory in Germany's federal elections in February, which concluded a six-month period during which the European Union's most populous nation was without a government holding a parliamentary majority.He has already embarked on numerous visits to Berlin's EU partners and has travelled to Kyiv alongside his French, Polish, and British counterparts.“Europe expects something from us,” said Merz in his first policy speech to parliament. “The new German government accepts this responsibility,” he added, promising that “we will offer our partners and friends reliability and predictability.”He stated that "the times in which Germany simply abstained on significant questions of European policy should be over," seemingly alluding to the internal conflicts that plagued his predecessor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition prior to its dissolution in November.The new administration unites Merz's centre-right Union bloc with Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).Merz highlighted his intention to maintain the support of the US Trump administration for Ukraine, asserting that he would operate under the principle that Germany's assistance for Ukraine is a collective endeavour involving Europeans, Americans, and other allies, serving their mutual interests.He pointed to Russian destabilisation efforts of various kinds and rejected the idea of a “dictated peace” or the “subjugation” of Ukraine.“We hope and we all are working hard on this clear position not just being held everywhere in Europe but also by our American partners,” Merz said, adding that he thanked President Donald Trump for supporting an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in two recent phone calls.“It is of paramount importance that the political West not let itself be divided, so I will continue to make every effort to produce the greatest possible unity between the European and American partners.”Prior to assuming office, the newly formed governing coalition expedited legislative measures to facilitate increased defence expenditure by relaxing stringent debt regulations, and to establish a substantial infrastructure fund aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy.The German military had experienced years of underfunding until Chancellor Scholz, in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, committed to raising Germany's defence spending to the NATO benchmark of 2% of gross domestic product and announced the establishment of a €100 billion special fund for military modernisation.Germany achieved this target through the fund, which is projected to be depleted by 2027.Merz said that “we will fulfil our commitments” in Germany's interest and that of NATO, but didn't address US demands for allies to raise their defence investments to 5% of GDP.The German leader acknowledged that Berlin’s security and influence in the world “stand and fall” with economic strength.He committed to reducing bureaucratic processes, enhancing digital transformation, offering tax incentives for businesses, and fostering additional trade agreements within the EU.“We will do everything to get Germany's economy back on the course of growth,” he said. “We want to invest and reform ... through our own efforts, we can once again become a locomotive of growth that the world looks at with admiration.”

'We'll break something': Tennis fan Pope Leo XIV meets Jannik Sinner at the Vatican

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The pontiff received Jannik Sinner in a private audience, who gave him his racket. The Pope's passion for tennis is well known.

"Shall we play?" the world tennis number one asked Pope Leo XIV. "Here we'll break something. Best not to," replied the pontiff. Jannik Sinner and the newly elected pontiff clearly had a whale of a time during a private audience at the Vatican on Wednesday morning.It all started with a humorous exchange between Pope Leo XIV and a journalist two days ago about the possibility of organising a charity tennis match. The reporter had jokingly proposed the participation of veteran US tennis player Andre Agassi. "As long as he doesn't bring Sinner" the pope commented, clearly enjoying a pun with the tennis player's surname.But then, world tennis champion Jannik Sinner, accompanied by his parents Hanspeter and Siglinde and the President of the Italian Tennis and Padel Federation Angelo Binaghi, met Pope Leo XIV in the rooms behind the Paul VI Hall in the Vatican.For the occasion, the Pontiff received a racket and Federation membership card as a gift from the young tennis player. Binaghi also brought the trophies won by the men's national team (the Davis Cup in Malaga, with Sinner as the protagonist) and the women's national team (the Billie Jean King Cup).Sinner, who hails from Sudtirol, a Germanophone part of Italy, is Italy's first big tennis star in a long while, as the sport doesn't usually feature many names from the "Bel Paese", particularly in the men's game."An immense honour to meet Pope Leo XIV," commented an emotional Sinner. The world champion expressed joy at the pontiff's interest in the sport of tennis, which he was able to play during his mission in Peru. "We felt all the passion that Pope Leo XIV has for our sport and this filled us with pride," commented Binaghi.

Boeing secures landmark deal with Qatar Airways as Trump deepens Gulf ties

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Boeing’s shares surged to the highest level in nearly 13 months after the US aerospace manufacturer secured a record-breaking $96 billion (€85.8 bn) order with Qatar Airways. The deal marked another major agreement struck by President Trump with a Gulf state during his Middle East tour.

Boeing has secured a historic deal with Qatar Airways, as part of US President Donald Trump’s regional trade drive. Shares in the largest US aerospace manufacturer rose 2% to a 52-week high on Wednesday following the announcement.During Trump’s visit to Qatar, the White House revealed that the US president had reached agreements totalling $243.5 billion (€209 bn) with the Gulf state. “The landmark deals celebrated today will drive innovation and prosperity for generations, bolster American manufacturing and technological leadership, and put America on the path to a new Golden Age,” stated the White House.The deals include a $96bn (€85.8 bn) Boeing aircraft order from Qatar Airways, a record order for the US's largest exporter.Following a $600bn (€535bn) investment plan made with Saudi Arabia earlier this week, the US-Qatar agreements further strengthen Washington’s ties with the wealthy Gulf nations. President Trump is set to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE) later today, with speculation that further Boeing deals may be signed with Emirates, Qatar Airways’ larger regional competitor.Largest ever Boeing orderBoeing announced that Qatar Airways would purchase 130 787 Dreamliners and 30 777X aircraft, calling the order “a record as the largest widebody order for Boeing, the largest order for 787 Dreamliners, and Qatar Airways’ largest-ever order.” The company claims the deal will support nearly 400,000 jobs in the US. President Trump attended the signing ceremony."After two consecutive years of record-breaking commercial performance, and with this historic Boeing aircraft order, we’re not simply chasing scale — we’re building strength that will allow us to continue delivering unmatched products and customer experiences,” said Qatar Airways CEO Engr. Badr Mohammed Al-Meer.“We thank our Boeing partners for answering the call and look forward to a future of continued smart growth together. Our team is excited to build 787s and 777s for Qatar Airways into the next decade, as they connect more people and businesses around the world with unmatched efficiency and comfort."The deal is a major win for Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who accompanied Trump on the Middle East trip. On Tuesday, Boeing also secured a $4.8bn (€4.3 bn) agreement for 737-8 MAX jets with AviLease, a Saudi Arabia-based aircraft lessor.Boeing’s 737 MAX passenger airliner had been grounded between 2019 and 2020, and again in 2024, due to ongoing safety and production concerns. The company has remained unprofitable since 2018, with its shares falling to a multi-year low in early April following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs.Trump’s efforts to reduce reliance on China’s businessesChina halted orders from Boeing in late April in response to Trump’s tariffs. During an interview with CNBC last month, Ortberg indicated that aircraft initially built for Chinese buyers may be redirected to other customers later this year.On Tuesday, Trump also finalised an $80bn (€71 bn) artificial intelligence investment plan with Saudi Arabia, which helped fuel rallies in Nvidia and other major tech stocks. Previously, US semiconductor shares had come under pressure amid the escalating US-China trade tensions.The Trump administration rescinded the AI diffusion rule introduced by former President Joe Biden, which would have taken effect today. However, the Department of Justice said it would rewrite the export curbs on AI chip exports to China. On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a 90-day suspension on export restrictions targeting 28 US companies, including rare earths and other critical materials, as part of a bilateral agreement reached after trade talks over the weekend.

'Lost' gecko species thought to be extinct rediscovered in South Africa after more than 30 years

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Since it was identified in 1991, mystery surrounded this elusive little lizard for more than three decades.

Researchers who were dropped off by helicopter in a largely inaccessible and remote canyon in South Africa say they have discovered a type of gecko that hadn't been seen in more than 30 years and was thought to be extinct - or maybe to have never existed at all.The Endangered Wildlife Trust said Wednesday that two of its researchers had found specimens of the Blyde Rondavel flat gecko. It was first identified in the same canyon in Mpumalanga Province in northeastern South Africa in 1991, only to not be seen again.Mystery surrounded the little lizard over the next three decades - was it extinct, or were the two male specimens originally found actually just juveniles from another gecko species, as some suggested?Researchers Darren Pietersen and John Davies returned to the same site last month, determined to find the Blyde Rondavel flat gecko again and solve the conservation conundrum that had rankled Pietersen.What is a 'lost' species?Because the Blyde Rondavel gecko hadn’t been recorded for more than 10 years, it was considered a “lost” species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature, the authority on threatened species, listed it as data deficient, meaning not enough was known to say for sure if it was extinct.“Having a species that is data deficient annoys me," said Pietersen. "I’ve always loved the species that others wouldn’t study because they’re harder to find or obscure.”The research trip was two years in the making after they registered at least six applications for permits to go, Pietersen said.They were dropped off on the top of one of the canyon's landmark circular rocky outcrops, which have sheer cliffs more than 100 metres high that can't easily be climbed and where the geckos were thought most likely to be. It was the exact same outcrop where the geckos were found in 1991.Pietersen and Davies only had three days camping on the outcrop to find the geckos, which are around 8 to 9 centimetres long when fully grown.“And when we did, we were elated to say the least,” said Pietersen. He said they saw 20 to 30 specimens and captured and photographed seven, giving the world a glimpse of a lost gecko three decades in the making.The fifth animal rediscovered in recent yearsThe Endangered Wildlife Trust said the data they collected, including tissue samples, should allow them to confirm it is a distinct species.The trust said the gecko was the fifth animal they had rediscovered in recent years. A mole that lives in sand dunes was found in 2021 after having not been seen for more than 80 years, and a butterfly, a lizard and a frog species have also been found again in the last four years after being lost to conservationists for decades.They all show how much there is still to learn about the world's biodiversity, the Endangered Wildlife Trust said.

NDXUSD

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:41

The NASDAQ 100 index exhibited positive performance following the U.S. CPI data coming in close to expectations. The high valuation multiples of technology stocks show a high sensitivity to changes in inflation and interest rates. After the artificial intelligence chip supply agreement between Nvidia and the Saudi Arabia-based Humain company, Nvidia's shares gained 6%, positively impacting the index's performance. U.S. retail sales figures are considered an important leading indicator for companies in the consumer technology sector. The U.S. CPI data to be released today could increase volatility in the index. The 21281 pivot level stands out as a critical technical level that will determine the short-term trend direction. It is anticipated that selling pressure may arise in price movements occurring below this level.

DAXEUR

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:37

The Germany DAX Index displayed a neutral trend/flat pricing following the release of US inflation data. The gradual improvement trend in Germany's leading economic indicators and expectations of the ECB starting to cut interest rates in June are supporting European stock markets. However, the possibility of delaying interest rate cuts in the US is limiting global risk perception. Economic data coming from the US is acting as a catalyst for market direction. The 23523 pivot level is significant from a technical perspective, and it is anticipated that upward movements could accelerate with pricing above this level.

WTIUSD

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:33

Ham Petrol fiyatları, ABD ham petrol stoklarındaki 3.454 milyon varillik azalış ile yön buldu. Stok seviyelerindeki beklentilere paralel düşüş, global enerji talebinde kademeli toparlanma sinyali olarak yorumlanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Çin ekonomisinden gelen veriler ve global büyüme endişeleri, fiyat yükselişlerini sınırlandırmaktadır. OPEC+ üretim artışının sürdürülmesi, arz tarafında destek sağlarken, ABD perakende satış ve ÜFE verileri talep projeksiyonları açısından önem taşımaktadır. Sanayi üretimindeki potansiyel toparlanma, endüstriyel enerji tüketimini destekleyebilir. 62.91 pivot seviyesi, fiyat hareketlerinin yönünü belirleyecek kritik bir referans noktası konumundadır. Satış baskısının devam edebileceği güçlü olasılıklar arasındadır.

XAUUSD

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:28

The gold price is under selling pressure due to the US inflation data aligning with expectations. The increased predictability regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path and the geopolitical risk premium provide support for the precious metal. The decline in US 10-year Treasury yields supports a negative real interest rate environment, creating favorable conditions for gold. The US retail sales data and the upcoming CPI announcement may influence short-term gold price dynamics. Strong consumer spending data could increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining its tight monetary policy, putting pressure on gold. The pivot level of 3197.00 is critical from a short-term technical perspective. It is anticipated that selling pressure may continue in price actions below this level.

GBPUSD

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:23

The pound experienced a partial decline following the release of U.S. CPI data. Strong employment and wage growth figures from the UK labor market suggest that the BoE's interest rate cut cycle is stronger compared to other central banks. Today's PPI and retail sales data from the U.S. could be decisive for the short-term direction of the pair. GDP growth figures and retail sales data to be released from the UK today will shed light on the BoE's near-term monetary policy decisions. The 1.3283 pivot level is considered a critical threshold to be monitored from a technical perspective. A recovery in pricing above this level is anticipated; however, due to the interest rate cut policy, it is expected that sharp sell-offs may recur.

EURUSD

Analysis
15 May 2025 08:19

Following the US inflation data aligning closely with expectations, the EURUSD pair exhibited limited volatility. The inflation indicators remaining at the projected level raise expectations for the ECB to implement a rate cut in its June meeting, while uncertainty continues regarding the Fed's potential rate cut timeline for this year. Retail sales and industrial production data have the potential to influence market perception regarding the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. Today's US CPI data is expected to be a key determinant for the pair, which is anticipated to continue facing selling pressure in the long term.