FOREX NEWS SURVEY - September Current Account Forecast Shows a Surplus of $2.85 Billion

Forex - Forex News: The current account survey has been completed. The median estimate for September's current account was a surplus of $2.85 billion, while the average estimate was a surplus of $2.853 billion. Economists believe that the current account data is likely to remain supportive concerning currency stability. According to a survey conducted by Forex News with 13 economists, the highest expectation for September's current account estimate was a surplus of $3.6 billion, while the lowest expectation was a surplus of $1.7 billion. In August, the current account data was expected to show a surplus of $4.2 billion but was announced at a surplus level of $4.32 billion. The median expectation for the 2024 current account is a deficit of $12 billion. The highest and lowest estimates were recorded at a deficit of $8.8 billion and $17 billion, respectively. In last month's Forex News survey, the year-end expectation was a deficit of $16.4 billion. For 2025, the median forecast of 10 economists indicates a deficit of $19.7 billion, with the estimate range spanning from a deficit of $11 billion to a deficit of $28 billion. In the previous survey period, the median expectation pointed to a deficit of $22.2 billion.

• Economist Expectations Gedik Investment's Chief Economist Serkan Gönençler indicated that they expected the current account balance to show a surplus of around $2.8 billion, similar to the levels of the same month last year, and the 12-month cumulative current account deficit to hover around $11 billion. He stated, "The decline of approximately $44 billion from the peak reached in May 2023 in the current account deficit is roughly attributed to improvements in net gold and energy trade." Gönençler noted that while these positive contributions might lessen in the coming months, a slowdown in the imports of consumption and investment goods could have a dampening effect, stating, "Accordingly, the current account deficit may be expected to hover near flat over the next 3-6 months. In summary, the current balance seems likely to remain supportive of currency stability." The August current account data will be released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) on November 12, Tuesday, at 10:00 AM. NOTE: Relevant bank/institution officials who wish to participate in the current account balance survey organized by Forex News can send an email to neslihan.koroglu@forinvest.com. WARNING: Survey data must be used with the mention of 'Forex News Survey'.
• Forex News Survey Results Table: https://news-files.foreks.com/attachment/1730882691939_CARDENGE.xls