Trump Wins the 2024 Presidential Elections

According to forecasts, Donald Trump has won the 2024 U.S. presidential race. The Republican candidate's victory was solidified by winning key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. With a lead in the remaining battleground states, it appears that Trump is on a clear path to surpass the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.

Voters who regard the economy as the most important issue overwhelmingly supported Trump. According to national exit poll data from Edison Research, 79% of these voters preferred Trump, while 20% favored the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The economy was ranked as the primary concern by 31% of voters, making it the second most important issue after the state of democracy at 35%.

Inflation and its impact on personal finances were significant factors influencing voters' decisions. More than half of the voters experienced at least moderate difficulties due to inflation over the past year, with about a quarter facing serious challenges. Among those moderately affected by inflation, Trump was preferred by a slight margin (50% to 47%), while 73% of those facing serious difficulties cast their votes for Trump.

Voter sentiment regarding their financial situations was notably negative, with 45% stating that their families' financial conditions had worsened compared to four years ago. This group preferred Trump over Harris by an 80% to 17% margin. This perspective contrasts with indicators such as low unemployment rates, strong consumer spending, and generally high household wealth.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of consumer confidence, hit a record low in the summer of 2022 when inflation rates peaked at an annual rate of 9.1%. Despite improvements following the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, the index's current levels continue to remain below those observed during Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021.