US-China Talks at Risk as Trump Presidency Approaches
The United States and China may face new challenges with the anticipated presidency of Donald Trump following a year of improving relations under President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping. The two countries are engaged in official discussions on various critical issues, but there are concerns that these communication channels, which play a key role in managing tensions, may be at risk.
In the defense sector, improved communication between the U.S. and Chinese militaries has helped reduce tensions, particularly at regional flashpoints in the South China Sea and near Taiwan. This improving relationship stems from agreements reached during meetings between President Xi and Biden in November 2023. Progress includes a rare meeting between Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan and Xi's senior military advisor Zhang Youxia, as well as the first discussions among theater-level commanders in September.
However, with Trump's return to the White House, uncertainty looms over the future of these military ties. Analysts suggest that the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command may maintain its current deployment levels, but Trump's unpredictable approach could raise concerns among Chinese leaders and military commanders.
Moreover, discussions regarding China's growing nuclear weapons program, which have been suspended, are likely to come under scrutiny in the coming months. Although the Biden administration is eager to make progress, Beijing has been reluctant to participate in such talks.
On the fentanyl issue, there is cooperation between the U.S. and China to halt the illegal trafficking of chemicals used in drug production. After Xi and Biden agreed on November 23 to relaunch joint efforts, China has taken steps to tighten controls on key chemicals.
Climate diplomacy between the two countries has also been significant, contributing to global agreements such as the Paris Agreement and consensus at COP28 in Dubai. However, Trump's expected withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could end bilateral cooperation on climate issues, though sub-national initiatives may continue.
Economic discussions have persisted with regular meetings of working groups since September 2023. During a meeting in Beijing in September, Chinese officials expressed serious concerns regarding U.S. tariffs, investment restrictions, and sanctions related to Russia.
While the broader dialogue between the U.S. and China is seen as important and productive, Zhao Mingzhao from Fudan University's Institute of International Studies notes that Beijing has "legitimate concerns" that these dialogues could be halted under a Trump presidency.