Wolfe Research has reduced its 2025 alumina price forecast by 26%.

Foreks - Wolfe Research has reduced its 2025 alumina price forecast by 26%, while increasing Midwest premiums and aluminum forecasts by 56% and 2%, respectively. Wolfe analysts, led by Timna Tanners, noted that "Alumina supply has responded more quickly to high prices than we expected, and we are reflecting a higher Midwest Premium (MWP) in light of the removal of previous exemptions and the 25% aluminum tariffs implemented by Trump on March 12." Uncertainty remains regarding a potential 35% additional tariff on imports from Canada, which adds an extra 10% tariff and has previously driven MWP premiums even higher before recent pullbacks.

Meanwhile, Wolfe analysts believe that aluminum prices will continue to be supported by high energy costs and China's adherence to its annual production cap of 45 million tons.