Who Is Leading the Race: Harris or Trump?
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 46% to 43% lead over former Republican President Donald Trump. The survey indicates that voters are generally dissatisfied with the country's direction, with a majority believing it is on the wrong track.
The six-day survey, which concluded yesterday, shows Harris's lead is similar to the previous week's Reuters/Ipsos poll, where she led Trump 45% to 42%. This suggests a fiercely competitive race as the November 5 election approaches with less than two weeks to go. Both polls show Harris ahead within the margin of error, but the latest survey suggests she leads by just 2% when unrounded.
Voter Pessimism on Economy and Immigration The poll highlights voter pessimism about economic and immigration issues, with a preference for Trump's approach in these areas. Among registered voters, 70% complain about the cost of living, 60% believe the economy is mismanaged, and 65% are dissatisfied with immigration policies.
Economy and immigration rank among the most critical issues for voters. When asked which candidate better addresses these matters, Trump leads 46% to 38% on economic policies and 48% to 35% on immigration. Participants see immigration as a priority for the next president's first 100 days, followed by income inequality and healthcare, both at 11% and 10%, respectively.
Harris Leads on Extremism and Healthcare Policies Trump struggles against Harris in handling political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35% on these issues. Harris also holds an advantage on abortion and healthcare policies.
Despite Harris's slight edge over Trump, it might not be enough to secure a win by election day on November 5. While national polls, including those by Reuters/Ipsos, reflect overall voter sentiment, electoral college results are decided on a state-by-state basis, underscoring the importance of seven critical states.
Voter Turnout to Decide the Race Poll findings suggest heightened voter interest in this year’s election compared to the 2020 contest between Democratic Joe Biden and Trump. 79% of registered voters, including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans, are confident they will vote. This marks an increase from 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans expressed voting certainty.
With the race remaining close, efforts by candidates to mobilize their voters will be crucial. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center, two-thirds of adults voted in the 2020 election, the highest turnout in over a century.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll included the online participation of 4,129 American adults, 3,481 of whom were registered voters. The poll's margin of error is 2%.