Headline: Social Democrats Take the Lead in Romanian Parliamentary Elections

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Headline: Social Democrats Take the Lead in Romanian Parliamentary Elections

Recent polling data suggests that Romania's Social Democrats are positioned to secure the most votes in the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 1, 2024. According to a survey conducted by INSCOP, commissioned by a local publication, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) currently has 30.2% voter support. This lead positions them ahead of their coalition partners, the center-right Liberals, who are polling at only 13.2%.

The far-right opposition party, Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), which was founded five years ago and opposes military aid to Ukraine, ranks second with a 21.4% vote share. The center-right opposition party, Save Romania Union (USR), is not far behind with a projected 12.7% of the vote. The survey, conducted between October 11 and October 18, comes with a margin of error of 3.2%.

Since late 2021, PSD and the Liberals have been governing together in a grand coalition. In the June European Parliament elections, they ran on joint lists, securing 48.6% of the votes. However, they fielded separate candidates in local elections on the same day, with PSD garnering 37.6% and the Liberals 32.3%.

Tensions within the coalition are escalating, notably as both party leaders plan to run in the two-round presidential contest on November 24 and December 8. Social Democratic Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is expected to advance to the second round. Contributing to the tensions is a controversial high court ruling that disqualified a far-right politician from the presidential race.

Before these tensions escalated, it was widely expected that PSD and the Liberals would continue their coalition post-parliamentary elections. However, Prime Minister Ciolacu has clearly stated that he will not form a government with AUR.

The forthcoming government will face significant challenges, including the necessity to reduce the country's substantial budget deficit and implement essential reforms to maintain the flow of billions in recovery funds from the European Union.

In a separate poll conducted earlier this month by CURS, PSD led with a 31% vote share, followed by the Liberals at 20%, AUR at 18%, and USR at 15%. The shifting figures reflect the evolving political landscape in Romania as elections approach.