"China's Steel Exports Set to Decline by 2025 Amid Tariff Pressures"
China's steel exports are expected to reach their highest level in eight years this year but are projected to decline by 2025 as comprehensive tariffs come into effect. China, which accounts for around 55% of global steel production, is anticipated to exceed the 100 million tons export mark for the first time since 2016.
Macquarie Capital strategists forecast that China's steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, then decrease to 96 million tons by 2025. Investment bank analysts have indicated to CNBC that while trade tariffs could further reduce China's steel exports, it may take some time for these effects to materialize. These projections were echoed by analysts consulted by Citigroup.
Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, mentioned in a Citigroup note this month that China's steel shipments are likely to face "downward" pressure next year and beyond due to anti-dumping measures.