Oil supply pressure is increasing: Are prices entering a new upward trend?

In an analysis published by Commerzbank, it was noted that the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a renewed risk premium in oil prices, with Brent crude recovering losses from March. The bank emphasized that the imminent collapse of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as well as the serious risk of testing the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, is putting pressure on the markets.

Additionally, attention was drawn to the recent U.S. attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, which could reinvolve Iran in the conflict. These developments have deepened supply concerns, prompting investors to factor geopolitical risks more heavily into oil pricing. Commerzbank highlighted that the U.S. administration tightened oil sanctions on Iran last week, potentially deterring other buyers, while tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports also exert upward pressure on prices.