TCMB expects 250 basis point interest rate hike

The results of the survey on the CBRT interest rate decision for December are out. According to the survey, interest rates are expected to increase by 250 basis points to end the year at 42.5 percent. The median expectation of 24 institutions that participated in the survey was that interest rates would increase by 250 basis points to 42.5 percent in December. The maximum expectation was 45 percent, while the minimum expectation was 42.5 percent. 2024 peak interest rate estimate is 45 percent On the other hand, 20 institutions also shared their peak interest rate estimates for 2024 during this survey period. Accordingly, the market’s peak estimate for the policy rate in 2024 in December was 45 percent. The highest expectation in the 2024 peak estimates was recorded at 45 percent, while the lowest expectation was recorded at 42.5 percent. In addition, 17 institutions shared their interest rate expectations for the end of 2024. Accordingly, the policy rate is expected to be 35 percent by the end of 2024. The maximum expectation for interest rates for the end of 2024 is 45 percent, while the minimum expectation is 30 percent. The first cut is expected in the 3rd quarter Finally, survey participants were also asked about their expectations for the first cut in interest rates. Accordingly, 10 of the 15 institutions that shared their estimates expect the first move from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the third quarter of 2024. The CBRT had raised the policy rate by 500 basis points to 40 percent in November, above market expectations.